Short-term load forecasting based on a semi-parametric additive model

Short-term load forecasting is an essential instrument in power system planning, operation and control. Many operating decisions are based on load forecasts, such as dispatch scheduling of generating capacity, reliability analysis, and maintenance planning for the generators. Overestimation of electricity demand will cause a conservative operation, which leads to the start-up of too many units or excessive energy purchase, thereby supplying an unnecessary level of reserve. On the contrary, underestimation may result in a risky operation, with insufficient preparation of spinning reserve, causing the system to operate in a vulnerable region to the disturbance. In this paper, semi-parametric additive models are proposed to estimate the relationships between demand and the driver variables. Specifically, the inputs for these models are calendar variables, lagged actual demand observations and historical and forecast temperature traces for one or more sites in the target power system. In addition to point forecasts, prediction intervals are also estimated using a modified bootstrap method suitable for the complex seasonality seen in electricity demand data. The proposed methodology has been used to forecast the half-hourly electricity demand for up to seven days ahead for power systems in the Australian National Electricity Market. The performance of the methodology is validated via out-of-sample experiments with real data from the power system, as well as through on-site implementation by the system operator.Short-term load forecasting, additive model, time series, forecast distribution

The price elasticity of electricity demand in South Australia

In this paper, the price elasticity of electricity demand, representing the sensitivity of customer demand to the price of electricity, has been estimated for South Australia. We first undertake a review of the scholarly literature regarding electricity price elasticity for different regions and systems. Then we perform an empirical evaluation of the historic South Australian price elasticity, focussing on the relationship between price and demand quantiles at each half-hour of the day. This work attempts to determine whether there is any variation in price sensitivity with the time of day or quantile, and to estimate the form of any relationship that might exist in South Australia.Electricity demand; Price elasticity

Quantum Information Approach to Rotating Bose-Einstein Condensate

We investigate the 2D weakly interacting Bose-Einstein condensate in a rotating trap by the tools of quantum information theory. The critical exponents of the ground state fidelity susceptibility and the correlation length of the system are obtained for the quantum phase transition when the frst vortex is formed. We also find the single-particle entanglement can be an indicator of the angular momentums for some real ground states. The single-particle entanglement of fractional quantum Hall states such as Laughlin state and Pfaffian state is also studied.Comment: 4 pages, 6 figures, minimal changes are mad

Convergence of millimeter-wave and photonic interconnect systems for very-high-throughput digital communication applications

In the past, radio-frequency signals were commonly used for low-speed wireless electronic systems, and optical signals were used for multi-gigabit wired communication systems. However, as the emergence of new millimeter-wave technology introduces multi-gigabit transmission over a wireless radio-frequency channel, the borderline between radio-frequency and optical systems becomes blurred. As a result, there come ample opportunities to design and develop next-generation broadband systems to combine the advantages of these two technologies to overcome inherent limitations of various broadband end-to-end interconnect systems in signal generation, recovery, synchronization, and so on. For the transmission distances of a few centimeters to thousands of kilometers, the convergence of radio-frequency electronics and optics to build radio-over-fiber systems ushers in a new era of research for the upcoming very-high-throughput broadband services. Radio-over-fiber systems are believed to be the most promising solution to the backhaul transmission of the millimeter-wave wireless access networks, especially for the license-free, very-high-throughput 60-GHz band. Adopting radio-over-fiber systems in access or in-building networks can greatly extend the 60-GHz signal reach by using ultra-low loss optical fibers. However, such high frequency is difficult to generate in a straightforward way. In this dissertation, the novel techniques of homodyne and heterodyne optical-carrier suppressions for radio-over-fiber systems are investigated and various system architectures are designed to overcome these limitations of 60-GHz wireless access networks, bringing the popularization of multi-gigabit wireless networks to become closer to the reality. In addition to the advantages for the access networks, extremely high spectral efficiency, which is the most important parameter for long-haul networks, can be achieved by radio-over-fiber signal generation. As a result, the transmission performance of spectrally efficient radio-over-fiber signaling, including orthogonal frequency division multiplexing and orthogonal wavelength division multiplexing, is broadly and deeply investigated. On the other hand, radio-over-fiber is also used for the frequency synchronization that can resolve the performance limitation of wireless interconnect systems. A novel wireless interconnects assisted by radio-over-fiber subsystems is proposed in this dissertation. In conclusion, multiple advantageous facets of radio-over-fiber systems can be found in various levels of end-to-end interconnect systems. The rapid development of radio-over-fiber systems will quickly change the conventional appearance of modern communications.PhDCommittee Chair: Gee-Kung Chang; Committee Member: Bernard Kippelen; Committee Member: Shyh-Chiang Shen; Committee Member: Thomas K. Gaylord; Committee Member: Umakishore Ramachandra

An Updated Numerical Analysis of eV Seesaw with Four Generations

We consider the so-called "eV seesaw" scenario, with right-handed Majorana mass $M_R$ at eV order, extended to four lepton generations. The fourth generation gives a heavy pseudo-Dirac neutral lepton, which largely decouples from other generations and is relatively stable. The framework naturally gives 3 active and 3 sterile neutrinos. We update a previous numerical analysis of a 3+3 study of the LSND anomaly, taking into account the more recent results from the MiniBooNE experiment. In particular, we study the implications for the third mixing angle $\mathrm{sin}^2\theta_{13}$, as well as CP violation. We find that current data do not seriously constrain more than one sterile neutrinos.Comment: References updated, and a Note Adde